Former President Trump’s shifting stance on reproductive health is raising concerns about his support among white evangelical voters, a crucial segment of his base since 2016. Recently, he stated he would veto a national abortion ban if elected, while his running mate, Sen. JD Vance, emphasized the need for the GOP to regain trust on this issue. Notably, former First Lady Melania Trump expressed strong support for abortion rights, further complicating the narrative.
Some evangelical leaders worry that Trump might not fully grasp the significance of the abortion issue for their community. “Why wouldn’t you run on that and court those evangelicals?” questioned Terry Amann, an evangelical pastor.
Despite this, many evangelicals still view Trump favorably, crediting him for appointing conservative Supreme Court justices who contributed to the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022. Pastor Robert Jeffress highlighted Trump’s consistent view that abortion policy should be determined by individual states, though opinions on state-level handling of abortion vary within the evangelical community.
A Pew Research survey indicated that 48% of white evangelicals consider abortion an important factor in their voting decisions. However, David Brody from the Christian Broadcasting Network noted that evangelicals are also prioritizing issues like the economy and immigration, similar to other voter groups. “Abortion is important to them… but it’s just one of the issues,” he said.
Current data suggests that Trump’s support among evangelicals remains strong, with 82% indicating they would vote for him, compared to 16% for Harris. Brody noted that there is no evidence of a decline in Trump’s backing among this group.
This election cycle has seen the emergence of the group Evangelicals for Harris, which recently launched a $1 million ad campaign featuring footage of the late evangelist Billy Graham to criticize Trump. Franklin Graham, however, rebuked the use of his father’s image, arguing that he would still support Trump’s conservative values.
Advocates for Harris believe there is potential to sway some white evangelical voters by addressing frustrations with Trump’s rhetoric. Texas state Rep. James Talarico emphasized the importance of reaching out to this demographic as part of a broader strategy to include people of faith in the Democratic coalition.
Conversely, conservative evangelicals remain doubtful about a significant shift, with Timothy Head from the Faith & Freedom Coalition predicting Trump would still capture at least 83% of the evangelical vote in November.
Historically, white evangelicals have played a pivotal role in elections. While Obama received 26% of the evangelical vote in 2008, that support dwindled in subsequent elections, with Trump gaining 81% in 2016 and 84% in 2020. Brody argued that to retain his evangelical base, Trump should focus on abortion and avoid moderating his stance to attract suburban women and independents, emphasizing the need for a targeted strategy to engage evangelicals.